Predicting norovirus and rotavirus resurgence in the United States following the COVID-19 pandemic: a mathematical modelling study.

BACKGROUND: To reduce the burden from the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States, federal and state local governments implemented restrictions such as limitations on gatherings, restaurant dining, and travel, and recommended non-pharmaceutical interventions including physical distancing, mask-wearing, surface disinfection, and increased hand hygiene. Resulting behavioral changes impacted other infectious diseases including enteropathogens such as norovirus and rotavirus, which had fairly regular seasonal patterns prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. The study objective was to project future incidence of norovirus and rotavirus gastroenteritis as contacts resumed and other NPIs are relaxed. METHODS: We fitted compartmental mathematical models to pre-pandemic U.S. surveillance data (2012-2019) for norovirus and rotavirus using maximum likelihood estimation. Then, we projected incidence for 2022-2030 under scenarios where the number of contacts a person has per day varies from70%, 80%, 90%, and full resumption (100%) of pre-pandemic levels. RESULTS: We found that the population susceptibility to both viruses increased between March 2020 and November 2021. The 70-90% contact resumption scenarios led to lower incidence than observed pre-pandemic for both viruses. However, we found a greater than two-fold increase in community incidence relative to the pre-pandemic period under the 100% contact scenarios for both viruses. With rotavirus, for which population immunity is driven partially by vaccination, patterns settled into a new steady state quickly in 2022 under the 70-90% scenarios. For norovirus, for which immunity is relatively short-lasting and only acquired through infection, surged under the 100% contact scenario projection. CONCLUSIONS: These results, which quantify the consequences of population susceptibility build-up, can help public health agencies prepare for potential resurgence of enteric viruses.

Childcare and School Acute Gastroenteritis Outbreaks: 2009-2020.

OBJECTIVES: Acute gastroenteritis (AGE) outbreaks commonly occur in congregate settings, including schools and childcare facilities. These outbreaks disrupt institutions, causing absences and temporary facility closures. This study analyzed the epidemiology of school and childcare AGE outbreaks in the United States. METHODS: We analyzed AGE outbreaks occurring in kindergarten to grade 12 schools and childcare facilities reported via the National Outbreak Reporting System in the United States from 2009 to 2019 and compared this information to 2020 data. Outbreak and case characteristics were compared using the Kruskal-Wallis rank sum test, χ2 goodness-of-fit test, and Fisher exact test. RESULTS: From 2009 to 2019, there were 2623 school, 1972 childcare, and 38 school and childcare outbreaks. School outbreaks were larger (median, 29 cases) than childcare outbreaks (median, 10 cases). Childcare outbreaks were longer (median, 15 days) than school outbreaks (median, 9 days). Norovirus (2383 outbreaks; 110 190 illnesses) and Shigella spp. (756 outbreaks; 9123 illnesses) were the most reported etiologies. Norovirus was the leading etiology in schools; norovirus and Shigella spp. were dominant etiologies in childcare centers. Most (85.7%) outbreaks were spread via person-to-person contact. In 2020, 123 outbreaks were reported, 85% in the first quarter. CONCLUSIONS: Schools and childcare centers are common AGE outbreak settings in the United States. Most outbreaks were caused by norovirus and Shigella spp. and spread via person-to-person transmission. Fewer outbreaks were reported in 2020 from the COVID-19 pandemic. Prevention and control efforts should focus on interrupting transmission, including environmental disinfection, proper handwashing, safe diapering, and exclusion of ill persons.

COVID-19-Associated Hospitalizations Among Vaccinated and Unvaccinated Adults 18 Years or Older in 13 US States, January 2021 to April 2022.

Importance: Understanding risk factors for hospitalization in vaccinated persons and the association of COVID-19 vaccines with hospitalization rates is critical for public health efforts to control COVID-19. Objective: To determine characteristics of COVID-19-associated hospitalizations among vaccinated persons and comparative hospitalization rates in unvaccinated and vaccinated persons. Design, Setting, and Participants: From January 1, 2021, to April 30, 2022, patients 18 years or older with laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection were identified from more than 250 hospitals in the population-based COVID-19-Associated Hospitalization Surveillance Network. State immunization information system data were linked to cases, and the vaccination coverage data of the defined catchment population were used to compare hospitalization rates in unvaccinated and vaccinated individuals. Vaccinated and unvaccinated patient characteristics were compared in a representative sample with detailed medical record review; unweighted case counts and weighted percentages were calculated. Exposures: Laboratory-confirmed COVID-19-associated hospitalization, defined as a positive SARS-CoV-2 test result within 14 days before or during hospitalization. Main Outcomes and Measures: COVID-19-associated hospitalization rates among vaccinated vs unvaccinated persons and factors associated with COVID-19-associated hospitalization in vaccinated persons were assessed. Results: Using representative data from 192 509 hospitalizations (see Table 1 for demographic information), monthly COVID-19-associated hospitalization rates ranged from 3.5 times to 17.7 times higher in unvaccinated persons than vaccinated persons regardless of booster dose status. From January to April 2022, when the Omicron variant was predominant, hospitalization rates were 10.5 times higher in unvaccinated persons and 2.5 times higher in vaccinated persons with no booster dose, respectively, compared with those who had received a booster dose. Among sampled cases, vaccinated hospitalized patients with COVID-19 were older than those who were unvaccinated (median [IQR] age, 70 [58-80] years vs 58 [46-70] years, respectively; P < .001) and more likely to have 3 or more underlying medical conditions (1926 [77.8%] vs 4124 [51.6%], respectively; P < .001). Conclusions and Relevance: In this cross-sectional study of US adults hospitalized with COVID-19, unvaccinated adults were more likely to be hospitalized compared with vaccinated adults; hospitalization rates were lowest in those who had received a booster dose. Hospitalized vaccinated persons were older and more likely to have 3 or more underlying medical conditions and be long-term care facility residents compared with hospitalized unvaccinated persons. The study results suggest that clinicians and public health practitioners should continue to promote vaccination with all recommended doses for eligible persons.

Interim Analysis of Acute Hepatitis of Unknown Etiology in Children Aged <10 Years - United States, October 2021-June 2022.

On April 21, 2022, CDC issued a health advisory† encouraging U.S. clinicians to report all patients aged <10 years with hepatitis of unknown etiology to public health authorities, after identification of similar cases in both the United States (1) and Europe.§ A high proportion of initially reported patients had adenovirus detected in whole blood specimens, thus the health advisory encouraged clinicians to consider requesting adenovirus testing, preferentially on whole blood specimens. For patients meeting the criteria in the health advisory (patients under investigation [PUIs]), jurisdictional public health authorities abstracted medical charts and interviewed patient caregivers. As of June 15, 2022, a total of 296 PUIs with hepatitis onset on or after October 1, 2021, were reported from 42 U.S. jurisdictions. The median age of PUIs was 2 years, 2 months. Most PUIs were hospitalized (89.9%); 18 (6.1%) required a liver transplant, and 11 (3.7%) died. Adenovirus was detected in a respiratory, blood, or stool specimen of 100 (44.6%) of 224 patients.¶ Current or past infection with SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that causes COVID-19) was reported in 10 of 98 (10.2%) and 32 of 123 (26.0%) patients, respectively. No common exposures (e.g., travel, food, or toxicants) were identified. This nationwide investigation is ongoing. Further clinical data are needed to understand the cause of hepatitis in these patients and to assess the potential association with adenovirus.

Trends in Acute Hepatitis of Unspecified Etiology and Adenovirus Stool Testing Results in Children - United States, 2017-2022.

In November 2021, CDC was notified of a cluster of previously healthy children with hepatitis of unknown etiology evaluated at a single U.S. hospital (1). On April 21, 2022, following an investigation of this cluster and reports of similar cases in Europe (2,3), a health advisory* was issued requesting U.S. providers to report pediatric cases† of hepatitis of unknown etiology to public health authorities. In the United States and Europe, many of these patients have also received positive adenovirus test results (1,3). Typed specimens have indicated adenovirus type 41, which typically causes gastroenteritis (1,3). Although adenovirus hepatitis has been reported in immunocompromised persons, adenovirus is not a recognized cause of hepatitis in healthy children (4). Because neither acute hepatitis of unknown etiology nor adenovirus type 41 is reportable in the United States, it is unclear whether either has recently increased above historical levels. Data from four sources were analyzed to assess trends in hepatitis-associated emergency department (ED) visits and hospitalizations, liver transplants, and adenovirus stool testing results among children in the United States. Because of potential changes in health care-seeking behavior during 2020-2021, data from October 2021-March 2022 were compared with a pre-COVID-19 pandemic baseline. These data do not suggest an increase in pediatric hepatitis or adenovirus types 40/41 above baseline levels. Pediatric hepatitis is rare, and the relatively low weekly and monthly counts of associated outcomes limit the ability to interpret small changes in incidence. Ongoing assessment of trends, in addition to enhanced epidemiologic investigations, will help contextualize reported cases of acute hepatitis of unknown etiology in U.S. children.

Severity of Disease Among Adults Hospitalized with Laboratory-Confirmed COVID-19 Before and During the Period of SARS-CoV-2 B.1.617.2 (Delta) Predominance - COVID-NET, 14 States, January-August 2021.

In mid-June 2021, B.1.671.2 (Delta) became the predominant variant of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, circulating in the United States. As of July 2021, the Delta variant was responsible for nearly all new SARS-CoV-2 infections in the United States.* The Delta variant is more transmissible than previously circulating SARS-CoV-2 variants (1); however, whether it causes more severe disease in adults has been uncertain. Data from the CDC COVID-19-Associated Hospitalization Surveillance Network (COVID-NET), a population-based surveillance system for COVID-19-associated hospitalizations, were used to examine trends in severe outcomes in adults aged ≥18 years hospitalized with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 during periods before (January-June 2021) and during (July-August 2021) Delta variant predominance. COVID-19-associated hospitalization rates among all adults declined during January-June 2021 (pre-Delta period), before increasing during July-August 2021 (Delta period). Among sampled nonpregnant hospitalized COVID-19 patients with completed medical record abstraction and a discharge disposition during the pre-Delta period, the proportion of patients who were admitted to an intensive care unit (ICU), received invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV), or died while hospitalized did not significantly change from the pre-Delta period to the Delta period. The proportion of hospitalized COVID-19 patients who were aged 18-49 years significantly increased, from 24.7% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 23.2%-26.3%) of all hospitalizations in the pre-Delta period, to 35.8% (95% CI = 32.1%-39.5%, p<0.01) during the Delta period. When examined by vaccination status, 71.8% of COVID-19-associated hospitalizations in the Delta period were in unvaccinated adults. Adults aged 18-49 years accounted for 43.6% (95% CI = 39.1%-48.2%) of all hospitalizations among unvaccinated adults during the Delta period. No difference was observed in ICU admission, receipt of IMV, or in-hospital death among nonpregnant hospitalized adults between the pre-Delta and Delta periods. However, the proportion of unvaccinated adults aged 18-49 years hospitalized with COVID-19 has increased as the Delta variant has become more predominant. Lower vaccination coverage in this age group likely contributed to the increase in hospitalized patients during the Delta period. COVID-19 vaccination is critical for all eligible adults, including those aged <50 years who have relatively low vaccination rates compared with older adults.

Hospitalizations Associated with COVID-19 Among Children and Adolescents - COVID-NET, 14 States, March 1, 2020-August 14, 2021.

Although COVID-19-associated hospitalizations and deaths have occurred more frequently in adults,† COVID-19 can also lead to severe outcomes in children and adolescents (1,2). Schools are opening for in-person learning, and many prekindergarten children are returning to early care and education programs during a time when the number of COVID-19 cases caused by the highly transmissible B.1.617.2 (Delta) variant of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, is increasing.§ Therefore, it is important to monitor indicators of severe COVID-19 among children and adolescents. This analysis uses Coronavirus Disease 2019-Associated Hospitalization Surveillance Network (COVID-NET)¶ data to describe COVID-19-associated hospitalizations among U.S. children and adolescents aged 0-17 years. During March 1, 2020-August 14, 2021, the cumulative incidence of COVID-19-associated hospitalizations was 49.7 per 100,000 children and adolescents. The weekly COVID-19-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 children and adolescents during the week ending August 14, 2021 (1.4) was nearly five times the rate during the week ending June 26, 2021 (0.3); among children aged 0-4 years, the weekly hospitalization rate during the week ending August 14, 2021, was nearly 10 times that during the week ending June 26, 2021.** During June 20-July 31, 2021, the hospitalization rate among unvaccinated adolescents (aged 12-17 years) was 10.1 times higher than that among fully vaccinated adolescents. Among all hospitalized children and adolescents with COVID-19, the proportions with indicators of severe disease (such as intensive care unit [ICU] admission) after the Delta variant became predominant (June 20-July 31, 2021) were similar to those earlier in the pandemic (March 1, 2020-June 19, 2021). Implementation of preventive measures to reduce transmission and severe outcomes in children is critical, including vaccination of eligible persons, universal mask wearing in schools, recommended mask wearing by persons aged ≥2 years in other indoor public spaces and child care centers,†† and quarantining as recommended after exposure to persons with COVID-19.§§.

Census tract socioeconomic indicators and COVID-19-associated hospitalization rates-COVID-NET surveillance areas in 14 states, March 1-April 30, 2020.

OBJECTIVES: Some studies suggested more COVID-19-associated hospitalizations among racial and ethnic minorities. To inform public health practice, the COVID-19-associated Hospitalization Surveillance Network (COVID-NET) quantified associations between race/ethnicity, census tract socioeconomic indicators, and COVID-19-associated hospitalization rates. METHODS: Using data from COVID-NET population-based surveillance reported during March 1-April 30, 2020 along with socioeconomic and denominator data from the US Census Bureau, we calculated COVID-19-associated hospitalization rates by racial/ethnic and census tract-level socioeconomic strata. RESULTS: Among 16,000 COVID-19-associated hospitalizations, 34.8% occurred among non-Hispanic White (White) persons, 36.3% among non-Hispanic Black (Black) persons, and 18.2% among Hispanic or Latino (Hispanic) persons. Age-adjusted COVID-19-associated hospitalization rate were 151.6 (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 147.1-156.1) in census tracts with >15.2%-83.2% of persons living below the federal poverty level (high-poverty census tracts) and 75.5 (95% CI: 72.9-78.1) in census tracts with 0%-4.9% of persons living below the federal poverty level (low-poverty census tracts). Among White, Black, and Hispanic persons living in high-poverty census tracts, age-adjusted hospitalization rates were 120.3 (95% CI: 112.3-128.2), 252.2 (95% CI: 241.4-263.0), and 341.1 (95% CI: 317.3-365.0), respectively, compared with 58.2 (95% CI: 55.4-61.1), 304.0 (95%: 282.4-325.6), and 540.3 (95% CI: 477.0-603.6), respectively, in low-poverty census tracts. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, COVID-19-associated hospitalization rates were highest in high-poverty census tracts, but rates among Black and Hispanic persons were high regardless of poverty level. Public health practitioners must ensure mitigation measures and vaccination campaigns address needs of racial/ethnic minority groups and people living in high-poverty census tracts.

Impact of Nonpharmaceutical Interventions for Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 on Norovirus Outbreaks: An Analysis of Outbreaks Reported By 9 US States.

In April 2020, the incidence of norovirus outbreaks reported to the National Outbreak Reporting System dramatically declined. We used regression models to determine if this decline was best explained by underreporting, seasonal trends, or reduced exposure due to nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) implemented for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 using data from 9 states from July 2012 to July 2020. The decline in norovirus outbreaks was significant for all 9 states, and underreporting and/or seasonality are unlikely to be the primary explanation for these findings. These patterns were similar across a variety of settings. NPIs appear to have reduced incidence of norovirus, a nonrespiratory pathogen.

COVID-19-Associated Hospitalizations Among Health Care Personnel - COVID-NET, 13 States, March 1-May 31, 2020.

Health care personnel (HCP) can be exposed to SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), both within and outside the workplace, increasing their risk for infection. Among 6,760 adults hospitalized during March 1-May 31, 2020, for whom HCP status was determined by the COVID-19-Associated Hospitalization Surveillance Network (COVID-NET), 5.9% were HCP. Nursing-related occupations (36.3%) represented the largest proportion of HCP hospitalized with COVID-19. Median age of hospitalized HCP was 49 years, and 89.8% had at least one underlying medical condition, of which obesity was most commonly reported (72.5%). A substantial proportion of HCP with COVID-19 had indicators of severe disease: 27.5% were admitted to an intensive care unit (ICU), 15.8% required invasive mechanical ventilation, and 4.2% died during hospitalization. HCP can have severe COVID-19-associated illness, highlighting the need for continued infection prevention and control in health care settings as well as community mitigation efforts to reduce transmission.